GTA 6 delayed again, AI impacts hardware, and Half-Life 3: Analyst predictions for 2026 | Year in Review

Every year, we turn to a panel of trusted analysts to ask them what they expect to see in the industry in the year ahead, and ask them to assess their predictions from the previous year.

This year we’ve spoken to Kantan Games’ Dr. Serkan Toto, Ampere Analysis’ Piers Harding-Rolls and Newzoo’s Emmanuel (Manu) Rosier, and investor and co-chair of the UK Games Council, Nick Button-Brown.

Manu Rosier, Director of Market Intelligence, Newzoo

2025 Predictions

GTA 6 will dominate the industry
Partially correct. Who would have thought that GTA 6 would be delayed twice?

Nintendo Switch 2 may struggle to outperform its predecessor
Too early to call. The Switch 2 launched strongly on first-party titles, but still lacks a defining system-seller capable of materially expanding the audience. Without that inflection point, surpassing the original Switch’s exceptional trajectory remains unlikely.

Ubisoft: Acquisition, privatisation, or dismantling
Directionally correct. Ubisoft ultimately avoided acquisition, with its deal with Tencent going through in 2025 and reinforcing shareholder stability. While this removed immediate M&A uncertainty, it did not resolve underlying execution and cost-structure challenges, making the prediction directionally right but overstated in its most extreme outcomes.

Fortnite takes on Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox
Correct. Fortnite continued its evolution into a platform, with Unity game support clearly signaling Epic’s ecosystem ambitions. Alongside Roblox, it is redefining how creation, distribution, and engagement intersect.

Weakening of large live-service titles outside of Fortnite and Minecraft
Partially correct. 2025 produced clear winners (ARC Raiders, Roblox, Battlefield 6) and losers (Call of Duty) rather than a broad live-service collapse. According to Newzoo’s data, playtime share between F2P and premium games remained stable, but engagement continues to concentrate around a small number of dominant ecosystems.

No successful new F2P multiplayer shooter launch in 2025
Mostly correct: This was a close call: premium multiplayer shooters like Battlefield 6 and ARC Raiders broke through, while new F2P launches largely struggled. Delta Force (December 2024) demonstrated that success is still possible, but only with strong differentiation and disciplined expectations.

2026 Predictions

Valve will shock the industry with Half-Life 3

Valve will re-enter the spotlight by officially revealing Half-Life 3, not as a nostalgia play but as a statement about where high-end PC gaming is heading. The reveal will be as much about platform positioning and technology leadership as it is about the game itself.

GTA 6 will be delayed further, triggering expectation fatigue

A further delay of GTA 6 in 2026 would start to test industry and investor patience, shifting the narrative from confidence in Rockstar’s polish to concerns around scope and development complexity. Prolonged anticipation would also introduce expectation fatigue, raising the bar even higher and increasing the risk that no launch can fully meet the weight of its own hype.

AI investment will quietly raise the barrier to entry for gaming
AI investment will increasingly absorb memory, storage, and component capacity, putting structural pressure on gaming hardware availability and pricing. This will raise the effective entry bar for new players, and force developers to temper high-end technical ambition, as cutting-edge games risk targeting an audience that is simply too small.

Steam Machine will launch but struggle to find an audience

Adoption is likely to remain niche. Even if the device is simple to use, console players will see little reason to switch without clear exclusives or price advantages, while hardcore PC players will continue to favor high-end rigs. Without “no-brainer” pricing, the value proposition risks falling into the middle ground.

Switch 2 will trail Switch 1 as expansion slows


Switch 2 sales will lag behind the original Switch as the pool of first-time Nintendo hardware buyers continues to shrink. Beyond limited third-party pull, the growing maturity of portable alternatives such as Steam Deck and similar PC handhelds is weakening Nintendo’s historical lock on mobile play.

“A further delay of GTA 6 in 2026 would start to test industry and investor patience, shifting the narrative from confidence in Rockstar’s polish to concerns around scope and development complexity.”

Emmanuel (Manu) Rosier, Newzoo

Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO, Kantan Games Inc

2025 Predictions

Xbox will open the floodgates and go all-in on PS5
Correct.

Instant gaming will have its big moment
Incorrect (so far). The market for Instant gaming, mini apps and HTML5 games is already gigantic in China but not quite there yet in the West – although I am still sure this will become reality later.

Ubisoft will change radically
Correct.

Nintendo will not have enough consoles to sell
Incorrect in the US and Europe (by now) but still absolutely correct for the Japanese market even in late 2025.

2026 predictions

Microsoft will go all in on Switch 2
Microsoft already released and announced a few games for Switch 2, but I think it’s high time for them to fully support the platform going forward. Apart from ports, I believe that we will see more new Xbox blockbusters coming to Switch 2 more quickly, or even on day one.

Sony will be challenged on mobile
With MLB The Show Mobile, Ratchet & Clank: Ranger Rumble, and Horizon Steel Frontiers, Sony started an attack on the mobile front towards the end of 2025 – which may go badly. Take the Horizon title, for instance: How big is the audience for an MMORPG based on the Horizon franchise? Why was this title announced for the PC, too, but not for PS5? I do understand why Sony saw the need to give mobile a proper shot, however, and I also think they will continue to crush it with their core PS5 business in 2026.

Ubisoft will be in better shape

There are good reasons why Ubisoft has been taking a beating from the market over the last years and challenges still remain, but I think the punishment has gone way too far now. Today, there are random mobile gaming studios in the world that are worth more than the French powerhouse. People forget Ubisoft still has great teams that just produced new hit Assassin’s Creed and Anno games, a strong IP roster, a rich catalogue, Tencent’s backing, and a promising (at least in my eyes) plan for restructuring.

“Apart from ports, I believe that we will see more new Xbox blockbusters coming to Switch 2 more quickly, or even on day one.”

Dr. Serkan Toto, Kantan Games

Piers Harding-Rolls, Research Director and Head of Games Research, Ampere Analysis

2025 Predictions

Industry layoffs to lessen
Correct. It hasn’t been great at all – over 3,000 jobs lost in 2025 – but layoffs have slowed down compared to 2024.

Market growth to remain slow
Correct. We’re currently forecasting 2.7% growth.

Switch 2 releases in Q2 at minimum $400/€400, will sell a little over 13m in 2025; expansion of Nintendo Switch Online
Correct, correct, incorrect. Switch 2 should sell over 15m by the end of the year.

Consoles to be made exempt from tariff charges
Incorrect

Increase in DTC initiatives by mobile games companies
Correct

Funding and M&A activity pick up
Partially correct. Overall deal volume is down, but value is up hugely following the EA deal.

Content predictions: More remakes and remasters; several extraction shooters to fail; Web3 resurgence; franchise build outs; more narrative driven, culturally significant, single-player titles
Correct, correct, incorrect, correct, correct.

2026 predictions

Overall market performance in 2026
I don’t expect there to be a major deviation from the trends of the last few years. Growth in 2025 sits in the 3-4% range, similar to 2024, with a substantial amount of growth this year coming from China, while the US market is flat. China outlook is a little unpredictable – it has performed better than expected this year – but if it continues its growth trajectory (largely driven by mobile games and mini apps) alongside GTA 6 arriving, 2026 will deliver growth again and likely at a similar level.

“I’m not expecting GTA 6 to be delayed again and that should ensure the console market has a good year.”

Piers Harding-Rolls, Ampere Analytics

I’m not expecting GTA 6 to be delayed again and that should ensure the console market has a good year. In the last couple of years subscription service price increases have done the hard work of maintaining the size of the console market, but 2026 should see games spending increase again. As predicted last year, GTA VI will be the largest entertainment release of all time in terms of revenue generated in its launch months. Other content trends I expect in 2026: more mid-priced high-production value games, narrative-focused titles based on cultural heritage, and more – possibly too many – cosy titles. We’ll get more experimentation with AI-driven gameplay, but these will be a sideshow rather than a main event. Cross-platform play and accounts – primarily mobile and PC – will become more prevalent especially in Asian markets.

Steam Machine and Steam Deck 2
There is growing anticipation for Valve’s next iteration of the Steam Machine concept even if the price point hasn’t been announced yet. This should translate into sales of a few million units in its first 12 months whatever the price. I wouldn’t be surprised if it outperforms what Steam Deck achieved during its launch cycle with the niche success of Valve’s existing handheld translating into a more committed fanbase. Even so, those pitching this as a true console competitor are wide of the mark even though we are clearly seeing a convergence of PC and console platforms to an extent. I’m expecting a price point between $700-800 for a baseline edition. On the flip side I expect demand for the Steam Frame to be significantly softer. The VR market is not about to turn a corner in terms of demand. What we are seeing is Valve’s ecosystem become ever stronger, and I think Steam Deck 2, or equivalent, will be announced in 2026.

Cloud services growing family play
Cloud gaming is at an interesting inflection point. Rather than focus on the characteristics of the distribution tech itself to sell the product, Netflix and Amazon’s services are now squarely focused on the casual, pick-up and play, family and party gaming audience. This will drive more mainstream use of cloud gaming from those that have no awareness of the tech being used to deliver the experience. That will give cloud gaming a better chance of becoming a more meaningful contributor to the overall market (currently it’s less than 0.5% of the total).

This new competitive front for the family and more casual TV gamer is coalescing around these subscription services and ad-hoc bits of hardware, like the Nex Playground. History tells us this audience is hard to engage and drive meaningful spending from – Nintendo is rightly seen as the champion here – but I predict that we’ll see a competitive response across content offers from various areas of the market including Nintendo itself and competing cloud gaming services that see connected TVs as a key access point.

“I do think PIF and Savvy Games will remain active in terms of acquisitions. The soft power aspect to this will result in other states and governments reassessing their cultural strategies and may even change their view of the games sector”

Piers Harding-Rolls, Ampere Analysis

Sports game initiatives will be big
2026 will be a big year for the sports games market, especially football titles thanks to the World Cup. The cross-over between live sports, games content and audiences is growing. It’s no surprise that EA was an attractive acquisition to the PIF and US private equity on the eve of the World Cup coming to the US. I expect more convergence between the EA Sports FC audience and live sports, while Netflix’s live sports push aligns strongly with its recent FIFA game announcement, which will arrive in time for the World Cup. While much of franchise expansion talk is focused on TV and film adaptations of games IP – which will continue to grow in 2026 – the convergence of live sports and games is an area to watch.

Established games IP will get more serious about UGC games platforms
I expect there to be an increase in big games IP – either as cross-overs with existing experiences or standalone experiences – coming to Roblox and Fortnite in 2026. While games publishers have historically largely stayed away from Roblox, the scale of the platform and its role can’t be ignored. As other brands converge on Roblox, its advertising business will grow strongly in 2026.

Impact from EA’s acquisition
I don’t expect this to be a catalyst for more mega-acquisitions, not least because there are few companies with the financial clout to achieve them. There are some unique aspects to this deal – namely the sports dynamic and related soft power – which sets it apart. I do think PIF and Savvy Games will remain active in terms of acquisitions. The soft power aspect to this will result in other states and governments reassessing their cultural strategies and may even change their view of the games sector. China will be looking to promote export of more games based on its cultural heritage, to compete with Saudi Arabia’s growing influence.

Regulation means DTC initiatives will become commonplace
By the end of 2026, I think most major mobile games publishers will have a DTC strategy in place, but the impact on profitability of these initiatives will differ significantly between genres of games and companies. Those that put more resources and effort into customisation of their DTC strategies will have the best results, but in exchange for more commercial investment. Other regulation – namely the social media ban for under 16s in Australia – will have an impact on game discovery channels, especially if similar policies are adopted in other markets. That will strengthen those games platforms that are not covered by the ban.

Nick Button-Brown, investor, Co-Chair of the UK Video Games Council

2026 predictions

More investment coming into games

I’m not stupid enough to predict that the industry will turn around in 2026 (although I am hopeful), but it will happen eventually. People will want to invest to take advantage of that, so expect to see more angel investment in companies that can be on the right side of the next games industry disruption. That includes more investment by publishers that are going to need their next generation of content, more project investment/UA funding by a variety of different companies entering the space – and if you’re in the UK, more government support in the form of money to the UK Games Fund, in matching schemes, grants and overall investment and support for the industry.

The “end” of platforms
Consoles will of course endure, but I do see it mattering less what platforms you make your games on. I think in 2026 we’ll see more central experiences where it doesn’t matter how you access them, and maybe more platforms will get added to that ubiquity. If you make a good enough game it doesn’t matter how your players access it.

More co-op games
I love co-op games, and at a time when there are a lot of people who are feeling lonely, a cooperative collaborative game is an amazing way to connect with friends. While I’m playing I end up talking about deep and meaningful things that are important in my friends lives, and really appreciate that time with them. Most of my favourite gaming experiences in 2025 were co-op – Split Fiction, Lego Voyagers, Vampire Survivors and Arc Raiders – and it looks like there are some amazing games coming for next year.

More ducking and diving
I have huge admiration for the way people have got through 2025, particularly those companies that have found ways to make it work and make great stuff happen. It almost feels like we have a generation of real entrepreneurs who just find a way (although I’m definitely not picking on those that didn’t, because graft also needs luck). In 2026 expect to see those people building new businesses, finding new ways of making money, pulling in new revenue streams, finding new communities to work with and new kinds of games to make. Yes, you have to be lucky, but you can also give yourselves more chances to be lucky.