Newzoo: Since 2021, nearly half of single-player AAA games released within a three-month window

45% of single-player AAA games have been released between August and November since 2021, a recent report has found.

Newzoo, which published its Global Games Market Report earlier this month, analyzed the first three-month player counts of 155 single-player AAA games that were released between January 2021 and December 2024 across PlayStation, PC, and Xbox (for 37 markets).

In this case, the firm identified a AAA game as “any game priced above $60,” as well as remasters of AAA games.

A blog post analysing the findings, posted by senior market analyst Michael Wagner, highlighted there are “two significant release concentrations” for AAA single-player games: February and March, when 23% of the 155 games analysed were released, and a “narrow window” between mid-August and mid-November, when nearly half (45%) were released.

These five months combined saw the release of 68% of all the single-player AAA games Newzoo analysed.

The firm noted, however, that only 22 of the games analysed were released in Q2, but they “carr[y] as much or more engagement per title than we see in September to November.”

55% of the roughly 2.5 million average first three-month player count for February was made up of Hogwarts Legacy (February 2023) and Elden Ring (February 2022), while Baldur’s Gate 3 (August 2023) accounted for half of August’s nearly three million player average.

Newzoo’s data also suggests that July is the “weakest month in terms of new title engagement,” with the average player count under one million for all single-player games analysed combined.

Wagner noted in the blog post that “publishers’ reliance on traditional release windows and fiscal year reporting cycles risks reducing profitability by driving up marketing costs and limiting visibility.”

The analyst stated that, for single-player games, the first few months are the “most important” for revenue, as players are “most willing to pay full price.”

“At the same time, shrinking discretionary budgets suggest players are increasingly selective, often committing to only one or two major releases simultaneously,” Wagner continued.

“This suggests that if your title is not the top priority of players at release, they may wait until the game is discounted (sometimes heavily) to purchase, if they do at all.”

According to Wagner, this is “especially pronounced” in the PC market, as players are “more cost-sensitive and willing to wait for deeper discounts.”

Newzoo’s Global Gamer Study found that only 24% of players get news from gaming publication websites, while 32% get their news from creators and influencers. As a result, Wagner said, players’ news sources have broken into “more fragmented clusters” that make mass awareness in their competitive periods more challenging.

The Newzoo analyst also highlighted that companies releasing games in these crowded release months may have increased marketing costs.

“Few AAA publishers would collapse if they shifted release dates”

Michael Wagner, Newzoo

“Due to the flood of new titles, publishers may face higher influencer marketing costs as they compete for limited creator availability,” he explained.

“Releasing into the traditional September to November window may not only reduce visibility, but it could make marketing efforts more expensive or less efficient,” Wagner continued.

Looking to the future, Wagner said 2025 “may look different than past years” because of the original late 2025 release window for GTA 6 resulting in some publishers “hesitating” to announce release dates for their games.

“As the title was delayed to May 2026, publishers may feel emboldened, or forced, to release their game in the H2 window for 2025,” Wagner explained.

“However, this may be counterproductive as the risk around this compressed release window could become cannibalistic, particularly for mid-tier titles.

“Furthermore, this does not consider multiplayer title releases, which is sure to add pain to many when the highly anticipated Battlefield 6 launches in October 2025.”

Wagner said that “most” game release dates are “self-imposed” and that “clustering” AAA single-player releases, especially between August and November, “strongly correlates with weaker performance.”

“Few AAA publishers would collapse if they shifted release dates, yet many still tie launches to holiday and fiscal deadlines,” Wagner said.

“The industry has matured beyond being centered on Christmas gifts for children, so the smarter move is to launch when your title has the best chance, not when a calendar dictates.”